August 2026: The Month the Fed Cut Turned Into a Hike
A jobs shock priced a rate cut on 7 August. By 28 August the Fed's new chair was talking about inflation, and the S&P 500 had spent a month going nowhere.
Four weekly runs, 10 to 31 August 2026.
Lead
On 7 August the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.6% on the week. The reason was bad news: the July jobs report showed the US economy shedding 23,000 jobs, the first negative payroll print of this cycle, and traders read it as the moment the Fed would have to cut. Three weeks later the index sat at 7,711.76, and the argument had flipped. The Fed’s new chair had just told the Jackson Hole symposium that inflation was the “more concerning” side of his mandate, and the AAII survey had 44.4% of retail investors bearish, up from 38.0% at the start of the month.
That’s the August story. A market spent four weeks pricing the wrong direction for the Fed and ended the month 0.6% below where it started it.
What changed is the Fed’s reaction function, or at least what the market believes about it. In early August a weak labour print meant cuts. By late August a 3.7% PCE inflation print meant a hike, and three regional Fed presidents had already said so in writing. Why it matters: US valuations rest on easier money. The Shiller CAPE ratio stood at 41.4 in July, above 40 for only the second time in 150 years of data. What it costs: the 10 year Treasury yield rose from 4.65% to 4.73% across the month, and the record high of 14 August still stands as the ceiling.
I write this from Riga, and the line that stuck with me came from Frankfurt. On 17 August the ECB’s research blog put a number on how much of this is Europe’s problem: roughly 440 billion euros of euro area money sits in US tech stocks, and unlike the dot com era, central banks have little room to cut in response to a correction. No US outlet led with that. It’s the sentence that frames the rest of this brief.
Three regions
Three hike dissents, a 3.7% PCE print and a hawkish new chair have moved the Fed from cut to hike, while stocks sit within 1% of a record priced for the cut.
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25% and inflation ticked up to 2.9%, but the euro gained against the dollar all month and Rheinmetall's backlog hit a record even as it cut guidance.
China's July retail sales grew 0.6% and fixed asset investment fell 6.7% over seven months, Japan's consumption went flat for the first time in eight quarters, and the yen weakened past 159 while JGB yields climbed toward 3%.
The United States made the month’s weather. The 29 July FOMC vote was 9 to 3, and the three dissenters, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Dallas’s Lorie Logan, all wanted a quarter point hike. That’s the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented in the same direction. When the minutes came out on 19 August they showed a broad internal case for tightening, with the majority only asking for more data. Then the data came. July PCE printed 3.7% headline and 3.3% core against a 3.6% consensus, and two days later Kevin Warsh gave his first speech as chair and did not push back.
Europe read differently. The ECB sat still at 2.25% while euro area inflation edged to 2.9%, and the euro rose anyway, from 1.1535 dollars on 7 August to 1.1643 by month end, touching 1.1699 on 21 August. A currency that gains while its central bank does nothing and the other side’s central bank turns hawkish is telling you something about where the money thinks the risk is. On the ground, Rheinmetall reported a record 80.5 billion euro order backlog for the first half and, in the same release, cut its full year sales outlook by 300 million euros after Germany cancelled the F126 frigate. Defence demand is real. Government procurement is not.
| Week | EUR/USD |
|---|---|
| 10 Aug | 1.15 |
| 17 Aug | 1.16 |
| 24 Aug | 1.17 |
| 31 Aug | 1.16 |
Asia gave the bears their cleanest data. China’s July industrial output rose 4.5% year over year, retail sales grew just 0.6%, and fixed asset investment fell 6.7% over the first seven months. Japan’s preliminary second quarter GDP grew at an annualized 1.1% with private consumption flat, the first non‑increase in eight quarters, while the 10 year JGB yield rose from 2.80% to 2.93% and the yen slipped to 159.5 per dollar. The PBoC held its loan prime rate at 3.0% on 20 August. The BoJ held at 1.0%. Neither moved, and neither market gave them a reason to.
Investor lens
The second quarter 13F filings landed on 13 and 14 August, and one name shows up in three of them. Berkshire Hathaway lifted Alphabet to 12.6% of its US equity book from 6.32%, which pushed it into the top three holdings by value. Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne opened a new Alphabet position. Seth Klarman’s Baupost added to its own, and both Druckenmiller and Klarman also bought more Amazon. That’s three investors with very different styles converging on the same two stocks in the same quarter.
| Sector | Before | After | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communication | 6.1% | 10% | +3.9 |
| Industrials | 3.8% | 4.2% | +0.4 |
| Health care | 4.1% | 4.3% | +0.2 |
| Real estate | 0.7% | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| Consumer discretionary | 3% | 2.8% | -0.2 |
| Materials | 1% | 0.8% | -0.2 |
| Consumer staples | 10.4% | 9.8% | -0.6 |
| Financials | 23.8% | 22.6% | -1.2 |
- Financials34.2%▼ 1.4
- Technology22.8%● 0.0
- Consumer staples14.2%▼ 1.6
- Communication13.9%▲ 6.5
- Energy9%▼ 4.2
- Other5.9%
Added to Alphabet Inc (5.9% to 9.4%); added to Alphabet Inc (0.4% to 3.2%); added to Delta Air Lines Inc (1% to 1.8%); cut Kroger Co (1.4% to 0.7%); cut Capital One Finl Corp (0.5% to 0.2%).
- Technology18.1%▼ 7.1
- Industrials5.4%▼ 1.3
- Health care4.5%▲ 0.4
- Financials4.1%▲ 0.8
- Consumer discretionary3.3%▼ 1.7
- Other64.6%
Added to State Str Spdr S&P 500 Etf T (12.7% to 16.3%); cut Amazon Com Inc (4.1% to 2%); cut Micron Technology Inc (2.2% to 0.6%); cut Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac (1.6% to 0.1%); cut Ge Vernova Inc (1.7% to 0.6%).
- Real estate22.9%
- Consumer discretionary20.8%
- Financials16.8%
- Communication14%
- Industrials12.7%
- Other12.8%
No move above 20 percent.
- Health care32.4%▼ 8.1
- Technology23.2%▲ 5.0
- Communication6.9%▲ 4.2
- Industrials6.5%▲ 1.3
- Consumer discretionary6.4%▲ 3.2
- Other24.6%
Cut Alcoa Corp (3.4% to 0.2%); added to Insmed Inc (6.4% to 3.5%); new position in Alphabet Inc (2.8%); added to Amazon Com Inc (0.3% to 3%); new position in Fox Corp (2.6%).
- Technology38.9%▲ 6.8
- Consumer discretionary16.3%▼ 1.3
- Communication13.8%▲ 1.2
- Industrials12.9%▲ 1.9
- Utilities8.1%▼ 1.3
- Other10%
Cut Micron Technology Inc (9.5% to 15.1%); cut Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd (7.3% to 2.6%); exited Sandisk Corp; added to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac (7.6% to 10.5%); exited Corning Inc.
- Consumer discretionary34.6%▲ 5.8
- Industrials18.2%▼ 4.7
- Health care15.1%▲ 1.5
- Financials11.2%▼ 2.9
- Communication10.7%▲ 1.0
- Other10.2%
Exited Willis Towers Watson Plc Ltd; added to Amazon Com Inc (12.7% to 16.5%); cut Wesco Intl Inc (7.7% to 4.2%); added to Genuine Parts Co (3.1% to 6.1%); new position in Cme Group Inc (2.5%).
- Technology14.5%▲ 0.7
- Health care7.3%▲ 0.2
- Industrials7.2%▼ 0.1
- Financials7.1%▼ 1.1
- Consumer discretionary5.2%▼ 0.6
- Other58.7%
Added to Ishares Tr (1.9% to 7.6%); cut State Str Spdr Dow Jones Ind (1.1% to 0.1%); cut Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac (1% to 0.1%); cut Nvidia Corporation (2.3% to 1.4%); cut Micron Technology Inc (1.1% to 0.4%).
- Technology33.6%
- Financials10.1%
- Communication9.2%
- Health care8.7%
- Consumer discretionary8.3%
- Other30.1%
No move above 20 percent.
13F filings show long US‑listed positions only: no cash, no shorts, no bonds, no foreign or private holdings.
The moves against the grain are worth as much. David Tepper’s Appaloosa cut its Micron share count by 41%, from 1,665,000 to 975,000, and the position’s weight still rose because the stock ran faster than he could trim it. Bridgewater trimmed Micron, Amazon and TSMC and put the money into the S&P 500 ETF instead. Citadel trimmed Nvidia. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square opened a 5.76% Visa position and put its reasoning in the Q2 letter, quoted below. Warren Buffett’s cash pile fell to $365.5 billion from a record $397.4 billion at the end of March, the first quarter in a while that he bought more than he collected.
“The classic signs that we're in a bubble.”
If right: AI equity valuations correct sharply once easy leverage and speculative issuance unwind.
“There's a fair amount of speculation right now. [...] Speculation is increasing, and that's a time to be a little more cautious.”
If right: A pullback in speculative corners (one day options, leveraged ETFs) precedes any broader correction.
“Today I added to my three largest shorts.”
If right: His short book, already the counterweight to the AI trade, gets bigger going into a record tape.
“We do not view common stocks as trading securities to be purchased at a low price one day and sold at a higher price the next, but rather, as fractional ownership interests in the underlying businesses [...]”
If right: A disciplined, business value approach outlasts short‑term price swings at a record tape.
“For those that have not seen it yet, Bloomberg's latest picture of circular financing in the AI fever dream is one to behold.”
If right: Vendor financing among AI hyperscalers proves to be the fragile link consensus is missing.
“When demand falls while supply is rapidly increasing, that causes interest rates to rise and credit growth to be curtailed.”
If right: Long duration Treasuries keep cheapening as the deficit's financing needs outrun demand for US debt.
Cash, cash equivalents and short term U.S. Treasury bills in billions, per the Q2 2026 10‑Q, down from a record 397.4bn at 31 March 2026.
Two voices on the outside stayed bearish all month. Ray Dalio went on record on 30 July with “the classic signs that we’re in a bubble,” and by 28 August was in TIME explaining why bond supply outrunning demand pushes rates up and credit down. Michael Burry, who no longer files a 13F and so cannot be checked, told his Substack readers on 11 August that he’d added to his three largest shorts.
Counter argument
The strongest case against everything above is that earnings don’t care what the Fed does. Nvidia reported on 26 August: second quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, with third quarter guidance of $108.0 billion. Three weeks earlier AMD had said its data center revenue rose 107% and guided the third quarter to about $13 billion. CrowdStrike grew revenue 26% to $1.47 billion and raised its outlook, citing AI driven attack volume as new demand. On the macro side, the flash S&P Global US composite PMI hit 56.0 in August, a 52 month high, and July CPI came in at 3.4% with core at 2.5%, both a notch lower than June.
If a company can double revenue in a year, a quarter point on the funds rate is rounding. That was the bull case in the 31 August run, and it’s a fair one. The S&P 500 did rise 0.5% in the week Warsh spoke, and the VIX finished the month at 14.43, lower than it started. Whoever holds Nvidia has not been punished for it.
The problem with the argument is that it’s an argument about Nvidia, and the CAPE ratio is an argument about the other 499. A hike hits the companies that can’t double.
Scorecard
| Equities extend their record run if the Fed signals room to cut despite July's hawkish dissents.Markets Brief · 17 Aug 2026 · Fed Chair Warsh's 28 August Jackson Hole address said inflation remains above target and 'the numbers are more concerning,' not the dovish surprise the case needed; September hike expectations jumped and the record calm gave way to a hawkish repricing. | Wrong |
The wrong call this month was ours. On 17 August this brief wrote: “Equities extend their record run if the Fed signals room to cut despite July’s hawkish dissents.” The Fed signalled nothing of the kind. Warsh told Jackson Hole on 28 August that “the numbers are more concerning” on the price stability side of the mandate and that inflation is running above target, hike expectations jumped, and the 14 August record has not been touched since.
The 10 August bear case, that valuations near a 150 year extreme depend on cuts the Fed may not deliver, is the one that has aged well. Its deadline was the 16 September FOMC. The 24 August bull case, that the cautious majority holds the line into September, carried the same deadline. Both get scored in the next issue against what the Fed did.
Paper fund
- Technology25%
- Communication20%
- Industrials20%
- Consumer discretionary15%
- Financials12%
- Other8%
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut on 28 August, two days after core PCE inflation held at 3.3%, reset rate expectations toward a September hike even as Nvidia's second quarter revenue rose 106% year over year to $96.2 billion.
Rheinmetall's order backlog hit a record 80.5 billion euros in the first half of 2026, even as the group cut its full year sales outlook by 300 million euros after Germany canceled the F126 frigate program.
China's industrial output rose 4.5% year over year in July, easing from June, while retail sales grew just 0.6% and fixed asset investment fell 6.7% over the first seven months, both missing forecasts.
Hypothetical. Scored in the September issue: each sector against its MSCI ACWI sector, each region against the S&P 500, STOXX 600 or MSCI AC Asia Pacific, the whole against MSCI ACWI.
The split above is a hypothetical September book, drawn from the four August runs and nothing else. Technology takes the largest slice because the two chipmakers reporting this month each doubled revenue, and the demand behind those numbers doesn’t reverse on a rate decision. Communication gets 20% on the strength of three 13F filers converging on Alphabet in the same quarter. Industrials get 20% on Rheinmetall’s backlog and the $58.62 billion Lockheed Martin PAC‑3 award, the largest single contract in the month’s data. Consumer discretionary and financials follow the Druckenmiller and Klarman Amazon adds and Ackman’s Visa position.
By region, the United States keeps 55% because that’s where the earnings are, and where the risk is. Europe gets 25% on the currency and on defence orders. Asia gets 20%, the smallest slice, because every macro print in the month’s data from China and Japan came in soft.
Watchlist
| Name | Event | Watch point | At publication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roku, Inc.ROKU · Nasdaq · United States | 14 Oct 2026Special meeting of Roku stockholders to vote on the merger with Fox Corporation | Whether Roku stockholders approve the merger, or the meeting is adjourned for more proxies, a read on how firmly the deal's path to closing is set.Fox Corporation agreed on 14 June 2026 to acquire Roku for 0.9693 of a Fox Class A share plus $96.00 in cash for each Roku share, a stock and cash deal that both companies' shareholders must approve before it can close. | 154.08 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc.CZR · Nasdaq · United States | 22 Sep 2026Special meeting of Caesars Entertainment stockholders to vote on the Fertitta Gaming Holdco merger | Whether stockholders approve the merger, clearing the last shareholder side hurdle before the take private deal can close.Tilman Fertitta's Fertitta Gaming Holdco agreed on 27 May 2026 to take Caesars Entertainment private for $31.00 a share in cash, and the stock closed at $29.67 on 17 September, a gap to the deal price that reflects the time still needed to close. | 29.67 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Electra Therapeutics, Inc.ETRA · Nasdaq · United States | 21 Sep 2026Nasdaq trading debut of Electra Therapeutics common stock under the ticker ETRA | Whether the stock holds above its $15.00 offer price on its first trading days, a read on demand for clinical stage biotech listings beyond the AI theme.Electra priced its initial public offering at $15.00 a share on 17 September 2026, the top of its marketed range, raising $350 million for ipsoprubart, its lead antibody in a global registrational trial for a rare immune blood disorder, a test of investor appetite for biotech listings outside the AI trade. | Not priced yet |
| Lantheus Holdings, Inc.LNTH · Nasdaq · United States | 14 Oct 2026Special meeting of Lantheus Holdings stockholders to vote on the merger with Curium US Holdings | Whether stockholders approve the merger, the last shareholder side condition before the deal can close.Curium US Holdings agreed on 3 August 2026 to acquire radiopharmaceutical maker Lantheus Holdings, whose PSMA PET imaging franchise has been a rare steady grower while chipmakers dominated the month's earnings headlines. | 100.8 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.TSM · NYSE · Asia | 8 Oct 2026TSMC's scheduled release of its September 2026 monthly sales report, per its investor relations financial calendar | Whether September revenue growth holds near August's pace, a read on whether AI driven foundry demand is still accelerating rather than leveling off.TSMC's August 2026 revenue rose 53.3% year over year and 10.1% month over month to NT$514.81 billion, extending the AI driven demand that also lifted Nvidia's and AMD's results this month. | 430.26 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Lufax Holding LtdLU · NYSE · Asia | 8 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting of Lufax Holding shareholders to vote on extending the maturity of Ping An Overseas Holdings' convertible notes | Whether independent shareholders approve the extension, a read on confidence that Lufax can refinance on its own rather than lean further on its parent.Lufax, the Ping An backed small business lender in China, called an extraordinary general meeting on 10 September 2026 to ask shareholders to extend the maturity of Ping An Overseas Holdings' convertible promissory notes, a sign of how much the fintech still leans on its parent for funding. | 1.18 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Genmab A/SGMAB · Nasdaq · Europe | 7 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting of Genmab shareholders to vote on a revised board remuneration proposal for 2026 | Whether shareholders approve the revised proposal, a read on whether the board's outreach addressed the pay concerns that sank the first vote.Genmab's shareholders rejected the board's proposed 2026 director remuneration at the March annual meeting, and after months of investor outreach the board is bringing a revised pay proposal back for a second vote. | 34.53 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| AC Immune SAACIU · Nasdaq · Europe | 2 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting of AC Immune shareholders to vote on electing Tom Graney, a former biopharma CFO and CEO, to the board | Whether shareholders elect Graney, a read on how the board is reinforcing financial oversight during the post‑founder transition.AC Immune is completing a management transition after founder Andrea Pfeifer's retirement, while reporting FDA Fast Track designation for ACI‑7104, its Parkinson's disease immunotherapy, and initial safety data for a separate inflammation program. | 2.68 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia TbkTLK · NYSE · Asia | 30 Sep 2026Extraordinary general meeting of Telkom Indonesia shareholders to approve the phase two spin‑off of its wholesale fiber connectivity business | Whether shareholders approve the spin‑off, a step toward separate valuation for Telkom's fiber infrastructure unit.Telkom Indonesia's board proposed spinning off the second phase of its wholesale fiber connectivity business into a dedicated subsidiary, PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia, separating fixed broadband infrastructure from the state carrier's legacy operations. | 14.24 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
| JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.JKS · NYSE · Asia | 21 Oct 2026JinkoSolar's 2026 annual general meeting, where shareholders vote on renaming the company to Jinko Holdings Limited and on re‑electing two independent directors | Whether shareholders approve the name change, a signal of how JinkoSolar wants to position itself beyond its original solar panel branding.JinkoSolar, one of the world's largest solar panel makers, proposed renaming itself Jinko Holdings Limited at its 2026 annual meeting, as Chinese solar manufacturers keep working through years of overcapacity and thin margins. | 10.76 USD, 17 Sep 2026 |
Ten names, each with a dated event in the next five weeks that will confirm or refute a specific watch point. Four are US deal votes or a listing, two are European governance meetings, and four are Asian names where the question is demand, funding or corporate structure. The list is built to be scored, not followed. TSMC’s September sales report on 8 October is the one that reads straight back into the Nvidia and AMD numbers above.
Prediction
By 30 October 2026 the 10 year Treasury yield closes above 4.74%, August's high, on at least one day, as the market finishes pricing the hike the three July dissenters asked for.
Scored in the September issue.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026‑08‑07, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08072026.htm
- S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED, 2026‑08‑28, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), 2026‑08‑28, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), 2026‑08‑28, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
- AAII, 2026‑08‑26, https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2026‑07‑29, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2026‑08‑19, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2026‑08‑28, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2026‑08‑26, https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal‑income‑and‑outlays‑july‑2026
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026‑08‑12, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm
- S&P Global, 2026‑08‑21, https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/552d682e429640fcb8af7da17ad060c3
- Robert Shiller (Shiller Data), 2026‑07‑31, https://shillerdata.com/
- European Central Bank, 2026‑08‑17, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2026/html/ecb.blog20260817~754a8a4418.en.html
- European Central Bank, 2026‑07‑23, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html
- European Central Bank, 2026‑08‑28, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref‑graph‑usd.en.html
- Eurostat, 2026‑07‑31, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products‑euro‑indicators/w/2‑31072026‑ap
- Rheinmetall AG, 2026‑08‑06, https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news‑watch/news/2026/08/2026‑08‑06‑rheinmetall‑news‑half‑yearly‑financial‑report‑h1
- Lockheed Martin Corporation, 2026‑07‑29, https://www.prnewswire.com/news‑releases/department‑of‑war‑awards‑lockheed‑martin‑58‑62b‑for‑multiyear‑pac‑3‑mse‑production‑to‑strengthen‑the‑arsenal‑of‑freedom‑302838382.html
- National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2026‑08‑17, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202608/t20260817_1965057.html
- Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (ESRI), 2026‑08‑17, https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2026/qe262/pdf/gaiyou2621_e.pdf
- Japan Ministry of Finance, 2026‑08‑28, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/historical/jgbcme_all.csv
- Bank of Japan, 2026‑08‑28, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/market/forex/fxdaily/fxlist/fx260828.pdf
- Bank of Japan, 2026‑07‑31, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf
- People's Bank of China, 2026‑08‑20, https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688229/3688335/3730276/3883798/2026082413520971920/index.html
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2026‑08‑08, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001067983/000119312526341032/brka‑20260630.htm
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc., SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑14, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526352200/0001193125‑26‑352200‑index.htm
- Duquesne Family Office LLC, SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑14, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1536411/000153641126000006/0001536411‑26‑000006‑index.htm
- Baupost Group LLC/MA, SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑13, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000106176826000010/0001061768‑26‑000010‑index.htm
- Appaloosa LP, SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑14, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1656456/000165645626000003/0001656456‑26‑000003‑index.htm
- Pershing Square Inc., SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑14, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2026053/000117266126003790/0001172661‑26‑003790‑index.htm
- Pershing Square Inc., 2026‑08‑12, https://pershingsquareinc.com/wp‑content/uploads/2026/08/PS‑Inc.-2Q26‑Letter‑to‑Shareholders.pdf
- The Diary of a CEO / Singju Post, 2026‑07‑30, https://singjupost.com/transcript‑of‑ray‑dalio‑interview‑on‑ai‑bubble‑diary‑of‑a‑ceo/
- TIME, 2026‑08‑28, https://time.com/article/2026/08/28/the‑bond‑market‑s‑supply‑and‑demand‑problem/
- Michael Burry, Cassandra Unchained, 2026‑08‑11, https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trading‑post‑august‑11‑2026
- NVIDIA Corporation, 2026‑08‑26, https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia‑announces‑financial‑results‑for‑second‑quarter‑fiscal‑2027
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., 2026‑08‑04, https://ir.amd.com/news‑events/press‑releases/detail/1295/amd‑reports‑second‑quarter‑2026‑financial‑results
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., SEC EDGAR, 2026‑08‑26, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1535527/000153552726000029/crwd‑20260826xex991.htm
The author holds four equity funds: about 46% security and defence, 45% global high dividend, 5% global and 4% technology, as of 16 September 2026. The paper fund above is hypothetical.
Journalism source material, not licensed investment advice. Verify all figures against primary sources before publication.